Exploring the limits of evolutionary forecasting
Research report (imported) 2018 - Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology
Molecular biology can be repeated in the laboratory and in wild populations. This could mean that evolution might follow rules. Work with experimental bacterial populations suggests the genotype-to-phenotype map to be an important central contributor. Recent work using mathematical models and experimental evolution shows that short-term mechanistic-level predictions of mutational pathways to new adaptive phenotypes can be made. Future challenges stem from the current inability to a priori predict locus-specific mutational biases and environment-specific fitness effects.