Ellen Baake: Modelling and simulating Lenski’s long-term evolution experiment

Abstract (auf Englisch):

We revisit the model by Wiser, Ribeck, and Lenski (Science 342 (2013), 1364–1367), which describes how the mean fitness increases over time due to beneficial mutations in Lenski’s long-term evolution experiment. We develop the model further both conceptually and mathematically.
Conceptually, we describe the experiment with the help of a Cannings model with mutation and selection, where the latter includes diminishing returns epistasis. The analysis sheds light on the growth dynamics within every single day and reveals a runtime effect, that is, the shortening of the daily growth period with increasing fitness; and it allows to clarify the contribution of epistasis to the mean fitness curve. Mathematically, we explain rigorous results in terms of a law of large numbers (in the limit of infinite population size and for a certain asymptotic parameter regime), and present approximations based on heuristics and supported by simulations for finite populations.

This is joint work with Adrián González Casanova, Sebastian Probst, and Anton Wakolbinger.